Mathematical Models for Estimating the Risk of vCJD Transmission

Abstract

We present two different simple models for vCJD transmission by blood transfusion. Both models indicate that transfusions alone are unlikely to cause more than a few infections, unless the number of primary cases increases.

To improve our models, future work should pursue data collection, empirical estimation of the model parameters, and examination of the underlying assumptions of our frameworks.

Further improvements could also include examining susceptibility to vCJD infection by age group and iatrogenic infections introduced through surgical instruments. Regarding the latter, it may be worthwhile to conduct experiments to quantify the transmission of prions from an infected surgical instrument after repeated sterilization procedures.