The MIIS Eprints Archive

Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain

Cawthorn, Chris and Barton, David and Maczka, Melissa and Davies, Russell and Siganporia, Zubin and Tolarczyk, Andrej (2012) Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain. [Study Group Report]



DSTL wish to explore methods for propagating uncertainty through a succession of linked models. The Study Group have looked at the particular example of casualty estimation from airbourne dispersion and suggested two different potential solutions. If the structure of the models is sufficiently simple, and the number of degrees of freedom relatively small, a semi-analytical approach based on Bayes’ theorem can be used. In the more general case, intelligent sampling methods can be used to gradually build a picture of likely outcomes.

Item Type:Study Group Report
Problem Sectors:Environment
Energy and utilities
Study Groups:European Study Group with Industry > ESGI 85 (Norwich, UK, Apr 16-20, 2012)
Company Name:DSTL
ID Code:721
Deposited By: Bogdan Toader
Deposited On:27 May 2018 17:33
Last Modified:27 May 2018 17:33

Repository Staff Only: item control page