Cawthorn, Chris and Barton, David and Maczka, Melissa and Davies, Russell and Siganporia, Zubin and Tolarczyk, Andrej (2012) Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain. [Study Group Report]
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Abstract
DSTL wish to explore methods for propagating uncertainty through a succession of linked models. The Study Group have looked at the particular example of casualty estimation from airbourne dispersion and suggested two different potential solutions. If the structure of the models is sufficiently simple, and the number of degrees of freedom relatively small, a semi-analytical approach based on Bayes’ theorem can be used. In the more general case, intelligent sampling methods can be used to gradually build a picture of likely outcomes.
Item Type: | Study Group Report |
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Problem Sectors: | Environment Energy and utilities |
Study Groups: | European Study Group with Industry > ESGI 85 (Norwich, UK, Apr 16-20, 2012) |
Company Name: | DSTL |
ID Code: | 721 |
Deposited By: | Bogdan Toader |
Deposited On: | 27 May 2018 17:33 |
Last Modified: | 27 May 2018 17:33 |
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