The MIIS Eprints Archive

Probabilistic flood forecasting

Munday, Paul and Pearson, Natalie and Lang, Georgina and Warneford, Emma and Siganporia, Zubin (2012) Probabilistic flood forecasting. [Study Group Report]



The Environment Agency provides a forecasting and warning service to people at risk from flooding. However, flood forecasts are inherently un- certain. Efforts to quantify the uncertainty based on quantile regression have failed to capture the full extent of the uncertainty associated with significant flooding events.
An investigation into factors that may be correlated with the uncertainty lead to the observation that there are structural biases in the model. It is possible to remove these, and thereby reduce the mean square error of the predictions, but the benefit of this is apparent in the prediction of ’normal’ conditions, rather than in flood predictions.
Additionally, a tweak to the linear fit in the quantile regression is sug- gested which is better suited to the data.

Item Type:Study Group Report
Problem Sectors:Environment
Energy and utilities
Study Groups:European Study Group with Industry > ESGI 85 (Norwich, UK, Apr 16-20, 2012)
Company Name:Environment Agency
ID Code:723
Deposited By: Bogdan Toader
Deposited On:27 May 2018 17:33
Last Modified:27 May 2018 17:33

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