?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F717%2F&rft.title=Modelling+hurricane+track+memory&rft.creator=Manus%2C+Lorcan+Mac&rft.creator=Barons%2C+Martine&rft.creator=Belica%2C+Matej&rft.creator=Chleboun%2C+Colm&rft.creator=Dellar%2C+P.&rft.creator=Gin%2C+Stephen&rft.creator=Gould%2C+Martin+D&rft.creator=Graf%2C+Isabell&rft.creator=Klepek%2C+Karolina+Aleksandra&rft.creator=Konrad%2C+Bernhard&rft.creator=Kwiecinska%2C+Agnieszka+Alina&rft.creator=Lai%2C+Yi-Ming&rft.creator=Luo%2C+Jamie&rft.creator=Ockendon%2C+John&rft.creator=Sobczak%2C+Grzegorz&rft.creator=Sorensen%2C+Troels+Bjerre&rft.creator=Szerling%2C+Pawel&rft.creator=Virmani%2C+Jyotika&rft.subject=Finance&rft.description=It+has+been+observed+that+hurricanes+that+are+close+in+time+often+follow+similar+paths.+If+this+can+be+shown+to+be+statistically+significant%2C+it+could+have+implications+for+how+insurance+premiums+are+calculated+in+areas+of+the+US+prone+to+hurricanes.%0D%0AWe+developed+two+independent+path+distance+metrics+and+while+one+suggested+that+sequential+storms+within+a+given+hurricane+season+are+more+likely+to+follow+each+other+than+any+other+pair+of+storms+within+that+season%2C+this+conclusion+was+not+supported+by+the+other+metric.%0D%0ASome+considerations+of+how+local+and+large+scale+air+pressure+gradients+might+affect+hurricane+paths+were+considered.+A+point+vortex+model+in+the+presence+of+a+steering+flow+field+was+developed+and+used+to+simulate+the+path+of+two+time+displaced+vortices.+In+order+for+the+vortices+to+follow+each+other+they+had+to+be+relatively+weak+compared+to+the+steering+flow+field.+At+realistic+vortex+strength%2C+the+trajectories+became+chaotic.%0D%0AIn+summary%2C+our+metrics+provided+conflicting+evidence+towards+the+no-+tion+of+hurricane+track+memory.+A+large-scale+steering+flow+field+did+not+appear+to+provide+sufficient+explanation+for+hurricanes+following+each+other%2C+though+this+does+not+preclude+hurricane+track+memory+being+due+to+localised+physical+changes+following+a+large+storm.&rft.date=2010&rft.type=Study+Group+Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F717%2F1%2FESGI73-Lloyds_CaseStudy.pdf&rft.identifier=++Manus%2C+Lorcan+Mac+and+Barons%2C+Martine+and+Belica%2C+Matej+and+Chleboun%2C+Colm+and+Dellar%2C+P.+and+Gin%2C+Stephen+and+Gould%2C+Martin+D+and+Graf%2C+Isabell+and+Klepek%2C+Karolina+Aleksandra+and+Konrad%2C+Bernhard+and+Kwiecinska%2C+Agnieszka+Alina+and+Lai%2C+Yi-Ming+and+Luo%2C+Jamie+and+Ockendon%2C+John+and+Sobczak%2C+Grzegorz+and+Sorensen%2C+Troels+Bjerre+and+Szerling%2C+Pawel+and+Virmani%2C+Jyotika++(2010)+Modelling+hurricane+track+memory.++%5BStudy+Group+Report%5D+++++