eprintid: 721
rev_number: 8
eprint_status: archive
userid: 17
dir: disk0/00/00/07/21
datestamp: 2018-05-27 17:33:50
lastmod: 2018-05-27 17:33:50
status_changed: 2018-05-27 17:33:50
type: report
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Cawthorn, Chris
creators_name: Barton, David
creators_name: Maczka, Melissa
creators_name: Davies, Russell
creators_name: Siganporia, Zubin
creators_name: Tolarczyk, Andrej
corp_creators: Mike Redwood
corp_creators: Joe Gillard
title: Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain
ispublished: pub
subjects: environment
subjects: utilities
studygroups: esgi85_v2
companyname: DSTL
full_text_status: public
abstract: DSTL wish to explore methods for propagating uncertainty through a succession of linked models. The Study Group have looked at the particular example of casualty estimation from airbourne dispersion and suggested two different potential solutions. If the structure of the models is sufficiently simple, and the number of degrees of freedom relatively small, a semi-analytical approach based on Bayes’ theorem can be used. In the more general case, intelligent sampling methods can be used to gradually build a picture of likely outcomes.
date: 2012
citation:   Cawthorn, Chris and Barton, David and Maczka, Melissa and Davies, Russell and Siganporia, Zubin and Tolarczyk, Andrej  (2012) Propagation of uncertainty through the hazard chain.  [Study Group Report]     
document_url: http://miis.maths.ox.ac.uk/miis/721/1/ESGI85-DSTL1_CaseStudy.pdf