?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F723%2F&rft.title=Probabilistic+flood+forecasting&rft.creator=Munday%2C+Paul&rft.creator=Pearson%2C+Natalie&rft.creator=Lang%2C+Georgina&rft.creator=Warneford%2C+Emma&rft.creator=Siganporia%2C+Zubin&rft.subject=Environment&rft.subject=Energy+and+utilities&rft.description=The+Environment+Agency+provides+a+forecasting+and+warning+service+to+people+at+risk+from+flooding.+However%2C+flood+forecasts+are+inherently+un-+certain.+Efforts+to+quantify+the+uncertainty+based+on+quantile+regression+have+failed+to+capture+the+full+extent+of+the+uncertainty+associated+with+significant+flooding+events.%0D%0AAn+investigation+into+factors+that+may+be+correlated+with+the+uncertainty+lead+to+the+observation+that+there+are+structural+biases+in+the+model.+It+is+possible+to+remove+these%2C+and+thereby+reduce+the+mean+square+error+of+the+predictions%2C+but+the+benefit+of+this+is+apparent+in+the+prediction+of+%E2%80%99normal%E2%80%99+conditions%2C+rather+than+in+flood+predictions.%0D%0AAdditionally%2C+a+tweak+to+the+linear+fit+in+the+quantile+regression+is+sug-+gested+which+is+better+suited+to+the+data.&rft.date=2012&rft.type=Study+Group+Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F723%2F1%2FESGI85-EA_CaseStudy.pdf&rft.identifier=++Munday%2C+Paul+and+Pearson%2C+Natalie+and+Lang%2C+Georgina+and+Warneford%2C+Emma+and+Siganporia%2C+Zubin++(2012)+Probabilistic+flood+forecasting.++%5BStudy+Group+Report%5D+++++