eprintid: 202
rev_number: 4
eprint_status: archive
userid: 6
dir: disk0/00/00/02/02
datestamp: 2009-01-22
lastmod: 2015-05-29 19:49:18
status_changed: 2009-04-08 16:55:53
type: report
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Ramsey, David
contributors_name: Devin, Siobhan
contributors_name: Houghton, Conor
contributors_name: Reyes, Eliza Loza
contributors_name: Sweeney, Conor
contributors_name: Wilson, Eddie
title: On the Estimation of the Distribution of Power Generated at a Wind Farm using Forecast Data
ispublished: pub
subjects: utilities
studygroups: esgi62
companyname: Bord Gais
full_text_status: public
abstract: New regulations on the supply of electrical energy in Ireland have introduced a system of suppliers bidding proposals for the cost of supply for each 30 minute period of the following day. In order to effectively bid and hedge against adverse events, it is necessary to assess the uncertainty of supply from wind energy farms. Hence, the aim of this study group was to estimate the distribution of power supply from a given set of wind farms a day in advance given forecast data.
problem_statement: The probability of wind power generation is dependent on the measurement of wind at different times, locations, heights, and temperatures.

The main questions for the study group:

1. Create a probability distribution function for wind-producing regions in Ireland using historical wind readings along with computer simulated data;

2. Use a comparison of forecast wind data and actual wind readings for a sample time period along with the above PDF to generate a new Forecasted Wind PDF;

3. Use this new function to generate a probability distribution of generated power from wind farms.
date: 2008
date_type: published
pages: 11
citation:   Ramsey, David  (2008) On the Estimation of the Distribution of Power Generated at a Wind Farm using Forecast Data.  [Study Group Report]     
document_url: http://miis.maths.ox.ac.uk/miis/202/1/bordgais-1.pdf