?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F247%2F&rft.title=Oil+price+cycle+and+sensitivity+model&rft.creator=Jones%2C+Marvin&rft.creator=Barton%2C+David&rft.creator=Hall%2C+Cameron&rft.creator=Coskun%2C+Erhan&rft.creator=Lacey%2C+Andrew&rft.creator=Lorenz%2C+Maike&rft.creator=Maringer%2C+Johannes&rft.creator=Please%2C+Colin&rft.creator=Richardson%2C+Giles&rft.subject=Energy+and+utilities&rft.subject=Finance&rft.description=EPRasheed+wishes+to+be+able+to+model+and+predict+oil+prices+out+to+a+time-horizon+of+2050%2C+taking+into+account+a+number+of+known+factors.+These+include+the+finite+supply+of+oil%2C+growing+and+shifting+demand%2C+the+viability+of+alternative+energy+sources+(at+different+pricing+levels)+and+the+interactions+of+oil+producers+and+oil+consumers%2C+as+they+respond+to+current+pricing+levels.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+study+group+concluded+that+while+%E2%80%98prediction%E2%80%99+of+price+in+any+meaningful+sense+was+not+viable%2C+a+model+for+scenario+analysis+could+be+realised.+The+model+did+not+incorporate+all+of+the+factors+of+interest%2C+but+did+model+important+time+lags+in+the+response+of+market+players%E2%80%99+future+behaviour+to+current+oil+prices.+Consideration+of+the+optimisation+of+supply+through+new+capacity+in+the+telecoms+industry+led+to+a+generalisation+of+the+standard+Cournot-Nash+equilibrium.+This+indicates+how+an+output-constrained+competitive+market+might+operate.+It+enables+identification+of+different+pricing+regimes+determined+by+the+level+of+competition+and+the+resource+limitations+of+particular+supplier+firms.+Two+models+were+developed+sufficiently+to+enable+simulation+of+various+conditions+and+events.+The+first+modelled+oil+price+as+a+mean+reverting+Brownian+motion+process.+Strategies+and+scenarios+were+included+in+the+model+and+realistic+simulations+were+produced.+The+second+approach+used+stability+analysis+of+an+appropriate+time-delayed+differential+equation.+This+enabled+the+identification+of+unstable+conditions+and+the+realisation+of+price+oscillations+which+depended+on+the+demand+scenarios.&rft.date=2009&rft.type=Study+Group+Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F247%2F1%2Foil-prices.pdf&rft.identifier=++Jones%2C+Marvin+and+Barton%2C+David+and+Hall%2C+Cameron+and+Coskun%2C+Erhan+and+Lacey%2C+Andrew+and+Lorenz%2C+Maike+and+Maringer%2C+Johannes+and+Please%2C+Colin+and+Richardson%2C+Giles++(2009)+Oil+price+cycle+and+sensitivity+model.++%5BStudy+Group+Report%5D+++++