?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F705%2F&rft.title=How+to+best+combine+statistical-empirical+relationships+to+downscale+seasonal+forecasts&rft.creator=Cooks%2C+M.&rft.creator=Connaughton%2C+C.&rft.creator=Kaouri%2C+A.&rft.creator=Cesana%2C+P.&rft.creator=Parnell%2C+William&rft.creator=Abrahams%2C+D.&rft.subject=Data+processing&rft.description=Fine-scale+seasonal+average+weather+forecasts+are+produced+by+Weather+Logistics+from+global+weather+predictors+and+measurements+using+a+novel+empirical+model.+Forecasts+of+this+kind+allow+better+management+of+agricultural+risks+and+food+supply+chain+operations.+Uncertainties+arise+at+each+step+in+the+forecast+process+and+propagate+through+to+affect+the+final+fine-scale+forecasts%3B+quanitifying+this+uncertainty+is+crucial+for+allowing+better+decision+making+and+cost-benefit+analyses.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+ares+of+investigation+posed+to+the+study+group+were+to+identify+the+best+global+predictors+to+improve+the+forecasts+and+to+quantify+the+uncertainty+that+propagtes+through+the+down-scaling+process+of+the+fore-+casting.%0D%0A%0D%0AKalmann+filters+were+investigated+to+attempt+to+improve+the+predictive+capabilities+of+the+time+series+measurements+of%2C+for+example%2C+the+El+Nino+index.+This+method+reduces+the+influence+of+noise+in+the+measurements+and+consequently+the+uncertainty+in+the+data+input+into+the+empirical+models.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+second+area+looked+at+was+correlating+various+global+measurements+to+the+temperature+in+the+North-west+of+England+to+attempt+to+identify+the+most+important+at+different+times+of+year.+It+was+found+that+the+large+scale+predictors+that+are+most+important+in+the+summer+may+not+be+as+efficient+in+the+winter+and+a+different+set+of+predictors+may+need+to+be+identified+to+predict+the+weather+during+the+colder+months.+A+weighted+linear+combination+of+a+summer+and+winter+predictor+was+derived+which+could+offer+a+method+of+combining+two+different+seasonal+relations+into+one+empirical+relation+valid+throughout+the+year.&rft.date=2015-03&rft.type=Study+Group+Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F705%2F1%2FWeatherLogistics.pdf&rft.identifier=++Cooks%2C+M.+and+Connaughton%2C+C.+and+Kaouri%2C+A.+and+Cesana%2C+P.+and+Parnell%2C+William+and+Abrahams%2C+D.++(2015)+How+to+best+combine+statistical-empirical+relationships+to+downscale+seasonal+forecasts.++%5BStudy+Group+Report%5D+++++