?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F718%2F&rft.title=Earthquake+risk%3A+Including+Uncertainties+in+the+Ground+Motion+Calculations&rft.creator=Hazelwood%2C+Vera&rft.creator=Bandeira%2C+Afonso&rft.creator=Cavaleiro%2C+Marta&rft.creator=Davies%2C+Russell&rft.creator=Mondal%2C+Anirban&rft.creator=Morales%2C+Sergio&rft.creator=Piwarska%2C+K.&rft.creator=Please%2C+C.P.&rft.subject=Finance&rft.description=Earthquake+risk+models+used+by+the+insurance+industry+for+estimating+the+damage+caused+by+an+event+typically+use+the+mean+of+the+ground+motion+intensity+to+predict+the+damage+to+a+particular+building.+On+the+other+hand%2C+the+ground+motion+intensity+can+be+modelled+as+a+ran-+dom+variable.+Literature+related+to+ground-motion+predictive+equation+derivation+includes%2C+as+a+rule%2C+the+estimate+of+the+standard+deviation+associated+with+the+distribution+of+the+intensity.+The+Study+Group+was+asked+to+find+a+way+to+include+the+uncertainty+associated+with+the+predic-+tion+of+the+ground+motion+intensity+contained+in+the+standard+deviation+into+the+damage+calculation%2C+in+a+way+in+which+the+computational+effort+is+not+increased+significantly%0D%0AThe+Study+Group+proposed+a+way+forward+based+on+Bayes%E2%80%99+theorem+for+the+marginal+distribution+of+damage+and+found+an+analytical+expression+for+the+damage+distribution+function.+However%2C+the+expression+is+an+in-+tegral+that+needs+to+be+evaluated+numerically+and+the+Gaussian-Hermite+quadrature+was+proposed+to+carry+out+the+calculations.+The+approach+seems+plausible+to+be+included+in+the+existing+models+and+the+additional+computational+load+is+estimated+as+to+be+marginal+relating+to+the+current+computational+demands.&rft.date=2010&rft.type=Study+Group+Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F718%2F1%2FESGI73-Air_CaseStudy.pdf&rft.identifier=++Hazelwood%2C+Vera+and+Bandeira%2C+Afonso+and+Cavaleiro%2C+Marta+and+Davies%2C+Russell+and+Mondal%2C+Anirban+and+Morales%2C+Sergio+and+Piwarska%2C+K.+and+Please%2C+C.P.++(2010)+Earthquake+risk%3A+Including+Uncertainties+in+the+Ground+Motion+Calculations.++%5BStudy+Group+Report%5D+++++