?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F721%2F&rft.title=Propagation+of+uncertainty+through+the+hazard+chain&rft.creator=Cawthorn%2C+Chris&rft.creator=Barton%2C+David&rft.creator=Maczka%2C+Melissa&rft.creator=Davies%2C+Russell&rft.creator=Siganporia%2C+Zubin&rft.creator=Tolarczyk%2C+Andrej&rft.subject=Environment&rft.subject=Energy+and+utilities&rft.description=DSTL+wish+to+explore+methods+for+propagating+uncertainty+through+a+succession+of+linked+models.+The+Study+Group+have+looked+at+the+particular+example+of+casualty+estimation+from+airbourne+dispersion+and+suggested+two+different+potential+solutions.+If+the+structure+of+the+models+is+sufficiently+simple%2C+and+the+number+of+degrees+of+freedom+relatively+small%2C+a+semi-analytical+approach+based+on+Bayes%E2%80%99+theorem+can+be+used.+In+the+more+general+case%2C+intelligent+sampling+methods+can+be+used+to+gradually+build+a+picture+of+likely+outcomes.&rft.date=2012&rft.type=Study+Group+Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fmiis.maths.ox.ac.uk%2Fmiis%2F721%2F1%2FESGI85-DSTL1_CaseStudy.pdf&rft.identifier=++Cawthorn%2C+Chris+and+Barton%2C+David+and+Maczka%2C+Melissa+and+Davies%2C+Russell+and+Siganporia%2C+Zubin+and+Tolarczyk%2C+Andrej++(2012)+Propagation+of+uncertainty+through+the+hazard+chain.++%5BStudy+Group+Report%5D+++++