The MIIS Eprints Archive

Statistical Modelling of Pre-Impact Velocities in Car Crashes

Kager, W and Kryven, I and Myerscough, K (2011) Statistical Modelling of Pre-Impact Velocities in Car Crashes. [Study Group Report]



The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to deter-
mine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.

Item Type:Study Group Report
Problem Sectors:Transport and Automotive
Machines / Production
Study Groups:European Study Group with Industry > ESGI 79 (Amsterdam, Netherlands, Jan 24-28, 2011) (SWI 2011)
Company Name:Netherland’s Forensic Institute
ID Code:591
Deposited By: Mark Curtis
Deposited On:29 Oct 2012 16:32
Last Modified:29 May 2015 20:12

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