The MIIS Eprints Archive

Aggregation of stochastic models

Hjorth, Poul (2007) Aggregation of stochastic models. [Study Group Report]



Dstl examines battle simulations based on stochastic evolution codes. One such code, known as SIMBAT (SIMple BATtle program) models the evolution of the battle as a sequence of turns in which the two sets of combating units move in a landscape. The units have objectives and act accordingly, they can acquire enemy units if lines-of-sight in the landscape permit this, and they can fire upon and disable enemy units with a certain probability. Based on the setting of a large number of parameters, and also on the outcome of pseudo-random decisions and engagements made in the course of the action, a final outcome of the battle is achieved. Figure 1 shows a SIMBAT screenshot.

Figure 1: Screenshot from a SIMBAT battle. The setting is that of a ‘standard’ battle (see full report).

The problem posed to the Study Group is the following: Is it possible to analyse and subsequently calculate a battle in terms of smaller subunits which can then be aggregated into the whole in a systematic fashion? This could potentially speed up the processing of a large number of simulations.

Item Type:Study Group Report
Problem Sectors:Aerospace and defence
Study Groups:European Study Group with Industry > ESGI 56 (Bath, UK, Apr 3-7, 2006)
Company Name:Dstl
ID Code:106
Deposited By: Richard Booth
Deposited On:19 Jun 2007
Last Modified:29 May 2015 19:47

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